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Happy New Year!

New Year 2009 was a leap second longer than normal. Who decides that we are going to change our clocks?

The International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) that is who.

Leap seconds, added once every 500 days or so, keep high-precision atomic clocks from running ahead of solar time, which is gradually falling behind as tidal friction slows Earth’s rotation. Michael Schirber.  (2005). U.K. Stargazers: Save the Leap Second. Science, 309(5744), 2147.

Deciding whether and when a leap second is needed falls to an international organisation called the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). It collects and averages measurements of the Earth’s rotation from around the world. Each January and July it issues a notice announcing whether a leap second is required in the next six months. James Randerson,  Science correspondent. (2008, December 31). Front: 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 … er 1. New Year to take extra second to reach big bang: Atomic clocks come into line with astronomical day: Erratic rotation of Earth creates need for change. The Guardian,3.

The periodic insertion of a leap second step into the scale of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) necessitates frequent changes in complex timekeeping systems and is currently the subject of discussion in working groups of various international scientific organizations. UTC is an atomic time scale that agrees in rate with International Atomic Time (TAI), but differs by an integral number of seconds, and is the basis of civil time. In contrast, Universal Time (UT1) is an astronomical time scale defined by the Earth’s rotation and is used in celestial navigation. R A Nelson, D D McCarthy, S Malys, J Levine, B Guinot, H F Fliegel, R L Beard and T R Bartholomew Satellite Eng. Res. Corp., USNO, NIMA, NIST, OP, Aerospace Corp., NRL, Litton TASC Inc.

The International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) was established in 1987 by the International Astronomical Union and the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics and it began operation on 1 January 1988. It replaced the International Polar Motion Service (IPMS) and the earth-rotation section of the Bureau International de l’Heure (BIH); the activities of BIH on time are continued at Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM). Since 1 January 2001 the IERS has got a new structure. In 2003 it was renamed to International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service.

The definition of UTC was implemented in 1972, principally to accommodate celestial navigation and follows recommendation 460 of the International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) in 1970. Since 1972 the use of electronic means to navigate has overtaken celestial navigation. Dennis McCarthy,  F Arias,  W Dick,  D Gambis,  M Hosokawa,  W Klepczynski,  S Leschiutta,  J Laverty,  Z Malkin,  D Matsakis,  R Nelson,  J Vondrak,  P Wallace,  N Capitaine,  T Fukushima. (2005). Division I Working Group on “Definition of Coordinated Universal Time”. International Astronomical Union. Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, 1(T26A), 63-66.

The leap second has been used sporadically at the Royal Observatory at Greenwich since 1972, an adjustment that has kept Greenwich Mean Time the agreed time standard.

Some scientists now say GMT should be replaced by International Atomic Time - computed outside Paris - because new technologies have allowed atomic time to tick away with down-to-the-nanosecond accuracy.

But opponents say atomic time’s very precision poses a problem. A strict measurement, they say, would change our very notion of time forever, as atomic clocks would one day outpace the familiar cycle of sunrise and sunset.

Atomic time advocates argue that leap seconds are onerous because they’re unpredictable. Since the exact speed of the Earth’s rotation can’t be plotted out in advance, they’re added as needed. Sometimes they’re added Dec. 31; other times at the end of June.

Those fixes can trip up time-sensitive software, particularly in Asia, where the extra second is added in the middle of the day.

Critics say everything from satellite navigation to cellular communication is vulnerable to problems stemming from programs ignoring the extra second or adding it at different times. Raphael G. Satter,  Jamey Keaten Associated Press. (2008, December 31). Wait a sec, 2009; Earth’s running late. Journal - Gazette,A.10.

So what is the time?

Tags: Atomic, Clocks, Earth, Measurement, Rotation, Time, Universal.

It is certainly funny to look back at predictions after an event has occurred and think how ridiculous our ideas were and how much gets blown out of proportion.

Does this story sound similar to the boy who cried wolf?

Is there a good reason to feel in a constant state of panic and anxiety?

Over the past century or so, forecasters have made sweeping declarations about the future. In many cases, the expert opinion held with regard to any given situation was that “it couldn’t be done.” As often as not, expert opinion was wrong. Dennis Behreandt.  (2006, June). They Said It Couldn’t Be Done… The New American, 22(13), 36-38.

Naive egocentric catastrophism is not based on sound science. Instead, it borders on pseudoscience, and discourages serious and sober debate on the scientific issues in potential catastrophes arising from global warming, depletion of resources, terrorism, and all the rest. Mordechai (Moti) Ben-Ari.  (2006, January). Whose Final Hour? Skeptic, 12(3), 40-49,80.

Interpretation of bold statements needs to be just that. When it comes to predicting the future, disclosure is needed to ensure that the statement is taken in context. For example the following is a list of predictions that were if not anything else, simply grand ideas:

One Toe?

Richard Lucas of the Royal College of Surgeons in England made the unlikely prediction that some day human beings in the future would become one-toed. “The small toes are being used less and less as time goes on,” he opined, “while the great toe is developing in an astonishing manner.” Cynthia Crossen.  (2007, January 8). Perils of Prediction: Seeing Rubber Cities And an End to Cars. Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition),  p. B.1.

Rubber Streets

In 1914, Sir Henry Blake, a British government official, foresaw the noiseless city, where rubber would replace brick, stone and asphalt as street paving. Cynthia Crossen.  (2007, January 8). Perils of Prediction: Seeing Rubber Cities And an End to Cars. Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition),  p. B.1.

Need for Speed

In 1911 Barney Oldfield, at the time one of America’s most famous race car drivers, argued that cars were plenty fast enough and that further development for speed was unnecessary. “The science of speed has reached a point where any manufacturer can produce a car which will satisfy any sane buyer,” Oldfield wrote. “There is no demand and little need for further development along speed lines.” Dennis Behreandt.  (2006, June). They Said It Couldn’t Be Done… The New American, 22(13), 36-38.

Does anyone remember the predictions around Y2K and perhaps even the paperless office?

Paperless Office

The paperless office used to be one of those high concepts everybody talked about, half in geeky boastfulness, half in jest, always in reference to a somewhat distant tomorrow. A remote and ambitious idea, it was right up there with robot butlers (think of Woody Allen’s “Sleeper,”) Big Brother biometrics, and a Star Wars missile defense system.

Dog-eared files and Post It notes remain in evidence at many a bank, as they simply haven’t bought into paperless schemes, or the technology, in some cases, has failed to deliver. Lauren Bielski.  (2002). So, what ever happened to the paperless office? American Bankers Association. ABA Banking Journal, 94(6), 57-58+.

When bold predictions about the future are made, we should take them into context and perhaps adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude. Too often we just believe the hype.

Tags: Anxiety, Forecast, Future, Hype, Prediction.

I’ve heard many predictions about medical breakthroughs, some even claiming that the word ‘disabled’ will become obsolete. It all seems too much like sci-fi. Then again, many concepts that seems far fetched in the original Star Trek have become part of our modern lives.

If only we could bring help to those who need it. Make the blind man see. Cell-based therapies might be an effective way to treat human corneal blindness and vision impairment due to the scarring that occurs after infection, trauma and other common eye problems, said senior investigator James L. Funderburgh, Ph.D., associate professor, Department of Ophthalmology. The Pitt corneal stem cells were able to remodel scar-like tissue back to normal. In the next steps, the researchers intend to use the stem cells to treat lab animals that have corneal scars to see if they, too, can be repaired with stem cells. Under the auspices of UPMC Eye Center’s recently established Center for Vision Restoration, they plan also to develop the necessary protocols to enable clinical testing of the cells. University of Pittsburgh Schools of the Health Sciences; Stem cell therapy makes cloudy corneas clear, according to Pitt researchers. (2009, April). NewsRx Health & Science,207.

Research led by David Hess of the Robarts Research Institute at The University of Western Ontario has identified how to use selected stem cells from bone marrow to grow new blood vessels to treat diseases such as peripheral artery disease. It’s one of the severe complications often faced by people who’ve had diabetes for a long time. Reduced blood flow (ischemia) in their limbs can lead to resting pain, trouble with wound healing and in severe cases, amputation. University of Western Ontario; Stem cell therapy grows new blood vessels. (2009, April). NewsRx Health & Science,70.

Transplant therapy using embryonic stem cells or their derivatives is currently under way in a small patient trial for spinal cord injury, but widespread use is still some years in the future. WHEN WILL STEM CELLS BE USED FOR TREATMENTS AND CURES? (2009, April 13). Wisconsin State Journal,A.2.

Dr. Funderburgh anticipates “stem-cell therapies for lots of parts of the body in the next 15 to 20 years.” David Templeton.  (2009, April 9). STEM CELL SUCCESS COULD HELP MORE THAN CORNEA. Pittsburgh Post - Gazette,A.1.

The medical research race…

Research into implants continues with great progress. Steven Siegel says the percentage of repeat surgeries has decreased in recent years due to improved equipment and techniques. Laura Johannes.  (2008, December 2). An Implant That Hits a Nerve. Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition),  p. B.14. By definition, an implantable device will require an operation, the current devices all require moderately complex surgery during which at least one of the components must be very precisely placed to achieve a good functional result. Close cooperation with surgeons will be needed in order to ensure that the required surgery is feasible. P Counter.  (2008). Implantable hearing aids. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers: Part H Journal of Engineering in Medicine, 222(H6), 837-52. The future of cochlear implants is bright, with multiple outstanding possibilities for even higher levels of performance Advances in electronics, nanotechnology, micromechanics, polymer chemistry, and molecular biology should lead to cochlear implants that give high-fidelity sound. The research is the basis for a new discipline, which should also contribute to spinal cord repair and the relief of blindness. Graeme M Clark.  (2008). Personal reflections on the multichannel cochlear implant and a view of the future. Journal of Rehabilitation Research and Development, 45(5), 651-93.

It doesn’t matter which medical research will provide the breakthrough as long as everyone benefits.

Tags: Bone Marrow, Cochlear, Implant, Medical Research, Stem Cells, Surgery, Technology, Therapy, Transplant.

I once had a friend that gave me a flyer for her birthday party. The event advertised that it had intelligent lighting however she had incorrectly spelt intelligent. Oh well, she wasn’t too bright. The following is a guide to the latest technology and bright ideas in lighting:

New and emerging lighting technologies such as LEDs (light-emitting diodes) can improve lighting quality while reducing maintenance and energy costs.

There are numerous technologies used in lighting, including tungsten incandescent, quartz halogen, fluorescent, and LED. Low-pressure sodium is more common in such outdoor applications as street lighting. These various technologies have distinctive advantages and disadvantages. The most familiar “light bulbs” have been around tor more than 100 years, and they are inexpensive. But a major disadvantage is that they are inefficient and waste a lot of energy in the form of heat. In addition, incandescent bulbs have a short lifetime. Incidentally, the regular screw-in base is called the “Edison base,” which can be useful to know for online searching. Fluorescent lighting is a great deal more efficient than incandescent lighting, but the tubes are fragile, require ballasts that sometimes hum, and contain mercury. Newer compact fluorescents eliminate many of the disadvantages of the large fluorescent tubes. Halogens are more efficient than incandescents but share many of their disadvantages. (Royal Van Horn.  (2006). LEDs and Home Lighting Technology. Phi Delta Kappan, 88(2), 103,169.)

The first LEDs in 1962 consisted of a layer a few atoms thick of the compound semiconductor material, gallium arsenide. Robust and taking very little power, they were ideal as indicators. They could give only red light, but their high efficiency compared with all other electric lights led people to ask whether a bright white LED could be developed for general illumination. The problem was solved by Shuji Nakamura, born in 1954 on Shikoku, the smallest of Japan’s four main islands. Nakamura had studied electrical engineering at a local university, where he became fascinated with solid-state physics and obtained a master’s degree.

Nakamura saw that the key to solving the problem was the development of an efficient bright blue LED. If he could achieve that, he could also make a green LED, and by combining red, green, and blue LEDs produce white. Although blue LEDs based on silicon carbide were being developed by other researchers, their efficiency was very low. Nakamura’s studies led him to conclude that the blue LED should be based on gallium nitride, but forming a thin, single-crystal layer of gallium nitride was extremely difficult. (Brian Bowers.  (2008). Brilliant! Shuji Nakamura and the Revolution in Lighting Technology. Review of Technology and Culture, 49(2), 479-481.)

The newest kid on the block, LEDs are 10-20 times more efficient than incandescents, so they use substantially less electricity. LEDs are also rugged and have a lifetime of more than 100,000 hours. Because I get tired of changing light bulbs, this is a very attractive feature. LEDs are small, so they must be combined into arrays or clusters. And because LEDs are low-voltage devices, using them in home lighting requires a power supply. In an LED light bulb, this power supply is built into the base of the bulb.

LEDs deliver a different correlated color temperature (CCT) compared to the old incandescent lamps; 6500K for the new LEDs compared to 2600K for the incandescent lamps. The scotopically enhanced color from the new LEDs provides an improved perception of overall brightness.

The fiber optic lighting system uses a remote source light. The light is channeled into a fiber optic distribution system and emitted into the space by an illuminator. The illuminator uses optics designed to match the application to illuminate the product. The new fiber optic lighting system requires less overall power and energy. (Steven Parker,  Joseph Konrade,  E Carroll Shepherd III. (2009). New Lighting Technologies Demonstrated at Defense Commissaries. Energy Engineering, 106(2), 7-18.)

Energy-efficient lighting technologies have been available for five to 10 years but have yet to make significant inroads into the market. The biggest deterrent seems to be the initial cost of retrofitting. “It takes more than just replacing standard bulbs with more energy efficient ones,” explains Alden Hathaway, Sylvania’s manager of pricing and applications. “Generally, a company needs to research various options for lighting a particular area, and it may be necessary to change the entire fixture in order to put in place the best lighting solution.”

“Lighting is usually handled by facilities managers and is not considered a management item,” another industry spokesperson says. “Typically, building managers are not positioned to ask for an increase in their budgets. So, many continue to purchase conventional lighting rather then retrofit for systems that offer lower lifecycle costs through electricity savings.”

Such thinking may be increasingly penny-wise and pound-foolish. According to industry experts, organizations may see a payback in the shape of lower electric bills in as little as one year. (Peak, Martha H.  (1993). A brighter, lighter business idea. Management Review, 82(8), 8.)

Tags: Bright, Energy, Fibre Optic, Fluorescent, Incandescent, LED, Light-Emitting Diodes, Lighting, Nakamura.

What can be done? The following are solutions suggested by the academics:

1. Income Distribution and Economics - ‘Economic progress will partly depend on the casting off of obsolescent modes of distribution-obsolescent in the sense of limiting the use of society’s accumulated knowledge and productive power to improve lives. James Peach has written that “[pjoverty occurs, not because of resource constraints or a lack of technical knowledge, but because institutional (distributional) arrangements have not been adjusted to the productive potential of the modern society” (1994, 170).’ Christopher Brown.  (2005). Is There an Institutional Theory of Distribution? Journal of Economic Issues, 39(4), 915-931.
2. New Mental Judgment and Decision Making Processes - ‘Pathways distill, organize, and present the assembled information in a way that allows people in communities to understand not only what they might do, but why they should do it, what it will take to do it well, and what contextual forces, which may either enhance or constrain the effectiveness, they are likely to encounter.’ Lisbeth B Schorr,  Patricia Auspos. (2003). USABLE INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT WORKS: BUILDING A BROADER AND DEEPER KNOWLEDGE BASE. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 22(4), 669-676.
3. Going Wireless - ‘Wireless industries have a potential to improve lives, change the world for the better and create a great deal of wealth. However, many obstacles stand in the way of this result. Businesses will face challenges in the areas of creation of technology, the adoption of the same by consumers, business considerations, global and local legal issues and consumer fears and resistance to the constant change around us. These obstacles can be overcome by understanding them and addressing them systematically. Businesses must be aware of the challenges in order to effectively plan the future and responsibly take in investment capital to drive the wireless industries. If these steps are taken with an eye on lessons-learned more will be learned about the networked economy and wonderful and exciting times will await those in the wireless industries and any business that benefits from new technologies.’   Michael Leventhal.  (2002). The golden age of wireless. Intellectual Property & Technology Law Journal, 14(1), 1-6.
4. Education and Training - Knowledge is power. The pen is mightier than the sword and so fourth. ‘Out of a different practice and skilling (Ingold 2000) in daily life, arose a worldview that made them capable of action, of filing lawsuits against multinational corporations and of dreaming of utopias of a radically different agriculture that corresponds to the ecology of the prairies.’ Birgit Müller.  (2008). Still Feeding the World? The Political Ecology of Canadian Prairie Farmers. Anthropologica, 50(2), 389-407.
5. Women - ‘Gender ideology and gender roles discourage and inhibit women from optimizing their human capital in activities that would yield optimal returns. Meanwhile, women’s contributions at home generally are not reciprocated by men. Many women express their frustration with this situation; men are generally less inclined to see women’s roles outside of the home as proper or even feasible nor are they willing to contribute more at home to support female entrepreneurship. For policy makers, perhaps the most important lesson is not to use microcredit as a substitute for other programs that empower women. Microcredit is just one of many initiatives that can challenge unfair gender norms. Governments should complement microcredit programs by funding other initiatives to promote gender awareness and fairness.’ Dwight Haase.  (2007). Closing the Gender Gap. ESR Review, 9(2), 4-9.
6. Information Sharing - ‘There is still an urgent need for national statistical offices, academics and public and private bodies to collaborate to measure real progress. The question at hand is not just what a shared information set means and should contain, but how to change culture and policies worldwide.’ Enrico Giovannini.  (2007). Why measuring progress matters. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD Observer,(262), 22-23. ‘Technology should facilitate dissemination of knowledge and not hinder it and that scarcity of resources should never come in the way of accessing information that is likely to lead to better healthcare and a better life.’ S Bavdekar,  N Gogtay,  D Muzumdar,  P Vaideeswar,  V Salvi,  M Sarkar. (2007). Journal of Postgraduate Medicine: The path ahead. Journal of Postgraduate Medicine, 53(3), 153-153.
7. Participation in Democracy - ‘We associate the term democracy with orderly elections, stability of government, universal secret suffrage, the federal system and even with certain legal sanctions for the protection of private property and individual economic enterprise which are part of the Anglo-American systems. Many of us of course, realize that democracy is more than this. From Jefferson on our leaders of democratic thought have pointed out the spiritual strivings and the social aspirations which constitute its essence, particularly the aspirations for a better and freer social order. They have seen that democracy is a complex of all these strivings intimately associated with powerful dynamic elements arising from the conquest of a new continent and from the industrial and technological revolutions of the past century and a half. Inevitably these economic changes broadened the basis of political participation in the nation-state as they opened up opportunities for ampler economic and cultural life to larger masses of people affected by these historical processes. A good deal of what we recognize as democracy in the modern world is just this broadening of the basis of political structure.’ Harold E Davis.  (2007). Democracy in Latin America. World Affairs, 170(1), 45-49.

Tags: Better, Decision Making, Democracy, Distribution, Economics, Education, Improve, Income, Judgment, Life, Mental, Training, Wireless, Women.

In many locations, it is easier to get from point A to point B without using the public transport system. It would be wonderful to click my fingers and appear in a new location without the hassle of driving, hiking, flying etc.

Solutions that are currently being suggested:

“It’s not enough for a company to just provide a free parking spot. They’ve got to be willing to help people who want to take the bus, or car pool, ride a bicycle to work.” - Phil Winters, a program director at the University of South Florida’s Center for Urban Transportation Research. Patrick J Kiger (2008, August). Going the Extra Mile. Workforce Management, 87(13), 1,22-24,26,28-29.

For the long-term unemployed, transport costs can be a significant barrier to re-entering the job market. To counter this, welfare-to-work programme provider Pertemps People Development Group has teamed up with local transport group Arriva in the Teesside area. Unemployed clients get free bus travel to and from the group’s offices and training sites and subsequently, if they get a job, to the workplace. Vivienne Riddoch (2008, July). INNOVATIONS: Free transport to help the unemployed. Regeneration & Renewal,21.

Others suggest:

Money is the solution or the routes need to be marketed better.

It is true these projects do need ongoing funding however it seems that throwing money at something without a solution isn’t an answer. Has anyone tried to search on a website how to catch a bus from one end of town to the other? Often these websites are far from user friendly. Access to information about how to get from point A to point B is often lost unless you are a regular commuter on that route.

Transportation is: Too important to be left to the public.

This comment is based on the idea that maintenance and work towards better transportation should not be dependent on whether the fuel prices rise or fall. In the past, transport systems were removed to make way for the car. Now these systems are needed more than ever but the framework has already been lost. To put back transport systems that have been replaced by the car is a difficult task.

The height of new buildings is one factor that relates to the intensity of urban development and transport solutions in a city.

If you build it they shall come. I’m not sure of the mathematical equation for the correlation between the height of buildings and transport required but it should possibly be a factor taken into consideration in town planning or building projects especially new suburb developments.

Tags: Future, Public, Solutions, Transport, Transportation.