Dux Nest

It is certainly funny to look back at predictions after an event has occurred and think how ridiculous our ideas were and how much gets blown out of proportion.

Does this story sound similar to the boy who cried wolf?

Is there a good reason to feel in a constant state of panic and anxiety?

Over the past century or so, forecasters have made sweeping declarations about the future. In many cases, the expert opinion held with regard to any given situation was that “it couldn’t be done.” As often as not, expert opinion was wrong. Dennis Behreandt.  (2006, June). They Said It Couldn’t Be Done… The New American, 22(13), 36-38.

Naive egocentric catastrophism is not based on sound science. Instead, it borders on pseudoscience, and discourages serious and sober debate on the scientific issues in potential catastrophes arising from global warming, depletion of resources, terrorism, and all the rest. Mordechai (Moti) Ben-Ari.  (2006, January). Whose Final Hour? Skeptic, 12(3), 40-49,80.

Interpretation of bold statements needs to be just that. When it comes to predicting the future, disclosure is needed to ensure that the statement is taken in context. For example the following is a list of predictions that were if not anything else, simply grand ideas:

One Toe?

Richard Lucas of the Royal College of Surgeons in England made the unlikely prediction that some day human beings in the future would become one-toed. “The small toes are being used less and less as time goes on,” he opined, “while the great toe is developing in an astonishing manner.” Cynthia Crossen.  (2007, January 8). Perils of Prediction: Seeing Rubber Cities And an End to Cars. Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition),  p. B.1.

Rubber Streets

In 1914, Sir Henry Blake, a British government official, foresaw the noiseless city, where rubber would replace brick, stone and asphalt as street paving. Cynthia Crossen.  (2007, January 8). Perils of Prediction: Seeing Rubber Cities And an End to Cars. Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition),  p. B.1.

Need for Speed

In 1911 Barney Oldfield, at the time one of America’s most famous race car drivers, argued that cars were plenty fast enough and that further development for speed was unnecessary. “The science of speed has reached a point where any manufacturer can produce a car which will satisfy any sane buyer,” Oldfield wrote. “There is no demand and little need for further development along speed lines.” Dennis Behreandt.  (2006, June). They Said It Couldn’t Be Done… The New American, 22(13), 36-38.

Does anyone remember the predictions around Y2K and perhaps even the paperless office?

Paperless Office

The paperless office used to be one of those high concepts everybody talked about, half in geeky boastfulness, half in jest, always in reference to a somewhat distant tomorrow. A remote and ambitious idea, it was right up there with robot butlers (think of Woody Allen’s “Sleeper,”) Big Brother biometrics, and a Star Wars missile defense system.

Dog-eared files and Post It notes remain in evidence at many a bank, as they simply haven’t bought into paperless schemes, or the technology, in some cases, has failed to deliver. Lauren Bielski.  (2002). So, what ever happened to the paperless office? American Bankers Association. ABA Banking Journal, 94(6), 57-58+.

When bold predictions about the future are made, we should take them into context and perhaps adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude. Too often we just believe the hype.

Tags: Anxiety, Forecast, Future, Hype, Prediction.